Identifying anthropogenic and natural causes of wildfires by maximum entropy method-based ignition susceptibility distribution models

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Turkey has a high potential for wildfires along its Mediterranean coast because of dense forest cover and mild climate. An average 250 occurs every year with more than 10,000 hectares destroyed due to natural human-related causes. The study area is sensitive fires caused by lightning, stubble burning, discarded cigarette butts, electric arcing from power lines, deliberate fire setting, traffic accidents. However, 52% causes could not be identified intense occurring at the same time insufficient equipment personnel. Since destroy cover, ecosystems, biodiversity, habitats, they should spatially evaluated separating them according their causes, considering environmental, climatic, topographic structure variables that trigger wildfires. In this study, burning agriculture stubble, butts lines were investigated in provinces Ayd?n, Mu?la Antalya, where 22% Turkey’s occurred. MaxEnt method was used determine spatial distribution identify risk zones each cause. Wildfires as species probability occurrence estimated. Additionally, since many are unknown, determining important prediction prevention. highest wildfire risks 9.7% 30.2% 4.5% 16.9% butts. total, 1,266 1,714 unknown analysis cause-based these updated including cause-assigned locations verification. As result, Area under ROC Curve (AUC) values increased susceptibility maps.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Forestry Research

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1007-662X', '1993-0607']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-022-01502-4